How the Crypto Risk Score works
The CryptoBubbles Risk Score compresses three separate readings into a single number between -100 and +100. It is a measure of how stretched current market behaviour is, not a price prediction and not a recommendation. The same calculation runs for every coin in the top 200 by market capitalisation, so scores can be compared across coins.
The three readings
Trend (50% weight) is derived from the 7-day price change, dampened by a power curve so that a move twice as large does not produce a score twice as high. It is the only reading with a direction: positive when price has risen over the week, negative when it has fallen.
Frenzy (30% weight) measures turnover — 24-hour trading volume divided by market capitalisation. It captures how much of the supply is actually changing hands rather than how far price has moved. A coin can drift upward on thin volume, or churn heavily while going nowhere.
Volatility (20% weight) is taken from the magnitude of the 24-hour move, regardless of direction.
Frenzy and Volatility are shown as positive numbers from 0 to 100. When they are combined into the Risk Score they take the direction of the 7-day trend, so heavy trading during a sell-off pushes the score further negative, and heavy trading during a rally pushes it further positive.
The market-cap gravity factor
The weighted result is multiplied by a gravity factor based on the base-10 logarithm of market capitalisation, clamped between 0.8 and 1.2. This exists because a 30% weekly move in a small-cap token is ordinary, while the same move in a top-10 asset is not — the factor scales the score to reflect that difference. Each coin page shows the factor currently applied to that coin.
Reading the score
Positive scores indicate upward pressure and negative scores indicate downward pressure. The further the score sits from zero in either direction, the more stretched conditions are, and the more likely a move is to mean-revert. A score near zero means the market is quiet, not that it is safe.
| Score | Band | What it indicates |
|---|---|---|
| 85 to 100 | euphoria | Buying pressure is extremely stretched and moves of this size rarely hold for long. |
| 60 to 84 | FOMO | Buyers are chasing the move rather than accumulating into weakness. |
| 35 to 59 | heated | Momentum is running hot but has not yet reached the extremes that usually precede a reversal. |
| 10 to 34 | healthy | The advance is proceeding at a pace that has historically been sustainable. |
| -9 to 9 | stable | The market is trading quietly with little directional pressure in either direction. |
| -10 to -34 | weak | Price is drifting lower on soft demand rather than heavy selling. |
| -35 to -59 | fear | Sellers are in control and buyers are stepping back. |
| -60 to -84 | panic | Selling is heavy and broad-based across the order book. |
| -85 to -100 | capitulation | Selling looks indiscriminate, the pattern that often marks a flush-out. |
Pegged assets
Stablecoins, gold-backed tokens and tokenized funds (for example USDT, USDC, DAI, PAXG, XAUT and BUIDL) are designed to hold their price against an outside reference such as the US dollar, gold or a fund's net asset value. The Risk Score measures speculative pressure, which a pegged price does not express. Applied to these assets the formula turns heavy trading and tiny fluctuations around the peg into large numbers that look like signals but are not, so no score is shown for them. They are identified from CoinGecko's stablecoin and tokenized-asset categories, together with a list maintained by CryptoBubbles.com.
Data source and freshness
Prices, volumes, market capitalisations and supply figures come from the CoinGecko API and are refreshed throughout the day. Every score is recalculated from the latest data each time it is displayed, and reflects conditions at the time the page was served.
Limitations
The score looks only at price, volume and market capitalisation. It does not consider news, fundamentals, token unlocks, liquidity depth or on-chain activity, and thinly traded coins can produce extreme readings from a small number of trades. It is an algorithmic reading of market activity for educational purposes, not financial advice. Do your own research before trading.
